Tax Efficient Fixed Income 4th Quarter 2018 Review and Outlook
In this commentary, Kenneth Potts and Bryan Laing, CFA review the fourth quarter of 2018 and examines our outlook and positioning for the months ahead.
Read the article Tax Efficient Fixed Income 4th Quarter 2018 Review and Outlook
Taxable Fixed Income 4th Quarter 2018 Review and Outlook
In this commentary, Brian Meaney, CFA reviews the fourth quarter of 2018 and examines our outlook and positioning for the months ahead.
Read the article Taxable Fixed Income 4th Quarter 2018 Review and Outlook
Emerging Markets 4th Quarter Commentary
In this commentary, Anindya Chatterjee, Lead Portfolio Manager of the Emerging Markets Strategy, reviews performance for the most recent quarter and provides an outlook for the months ahead.
The Conundrum
The Number: The most recent jobs report of 300k was an eye-opener, as was November’s upward revision by over 50,000 jobs, to 176,000. Nevertheless, the consensus outlook for the economy has seemed inordinately tied to the mood of the stock markets, rather than economic data.
The Battle Between T-bills and the 2-year note: Fed Tightening is likely over, pause or easing cycle likely ahead
If all we know about markets was based on the relationship between T-bills and the 2-year note, we have arrived at an important junction. T-bills and the 2-year note are battling over whether or not the front end of the yield curve will be positive, or inverted.
Is the 1 Year Treasury Inverted?
Though it may be correct in literal terms to define the drop in yield between the 1 year Treasury and the 3 year Treasury an “inversion”, even a casual observer would note that the trajectory is linear, with the exception of a “bulge” propping up the yield of 1 year Treasuries. Which raises the question - why is there a meaningful kick-up in yield in that particular spot? This is not an easy question to answer.
Regime Change and Risk
In conjunction with IPI our CIO Jonathan Lewis conducted a roundtable with investors to discuss regime change and the risk-on, risk-off trade. His presentation highlighted the shift of power in the US congress, a more restrictive world trade system, governments moving from liberal democracies to nationalism, as well as all the different ways regime change is manifesting across the world.
2019 Asia Market Outlook
What should investors expect from Asian markets in 2019? Our investment professionals have digested recent market volatility and evaluated the fundamentals to identify the themes to watch.
Global Investment Outlook 2019
Despite the latest escalation in trade tensions and political vulnerabilities in Europe, the narrative of a synchronized global expansion remains firmly intact, while the accommodative monetary and fiscal impulse should allow the expansion to continue uninterrupted in the coming year. After a tumultuous 2018, 2019 looks set to be another interesting year.
Risk On
Fed Chairman Powell gave the green light for risk on - and risk markets have wasted no time responding. Not only did he say rates are near the neutral rate, he explained stocks are reasonably valued, and the banking system is strong – we believe this is about as strong a buy signal as a Fed chair will ever give.