Fixed Income   |   March 12, 2020

Municipal Market Volatility and Liquidity Amid COVID-19

Caroline Grandoit
Global Head of Total Portfolio Solutions
Robert Petty
Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Fiera Asia
Caroline Grandoit
Global Head of Total Portfolio Solutions
Robert Petty
Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Fiera Asia
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Dominic Bokor-Ingram
Senior Portfolio Manager
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Dominic Bokor-Ingram
Senior Portfolio Manager
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Dominic Bokor-Ingram
Senior Portfolio Manager
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Kenneth M. Potts
Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager
Dexter J. Torres
Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Head of Trading
Brian P. Meaney
Senior Vice President, Taxable Bond Strategist
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Brian P. Meaney
Senior Vice President, Taxable Bond Strategist
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Brian P. Meaney
Senior Vice President, Taxable Bond Strategist
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Reese K. Trucks
Vice President, Credit Research
Josefa Palma
Investment Counselor, Private Wealth
Carolyn N. Dolan
Executive Vice President, Head of US Private Wealth
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Brian P. Meaney
Senior Vice President, Taxable Bond Strategist
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Dexter J. Torres
Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Head of Trading
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Kenneth M. Potts
Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager
Dexter J. Torres
Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Head of Trading

There is considerably less liquidity in the municipal bond market today.
Municipal/Treasury ratios are above 200%. As we assess the scope of the panicselling due to COVID-19 concerns, some of our initial observations are included
below:

  • Most dealers are currently not bidding on municipals. The market volatility has left them unable to hedge their positions. Their risk departments are tapping them on the shoulder to sell positions and lighten up.
  • We hear that other buy side managers are frozen. Absolute yields and market volatility have put them on the sidelines. “Deer in the headlights” has been used by some of our trading partners.
  • There are multiple large bid lists but very few items appear to be trading.
  • Fund flows were a bit negative last week, and from the bid lists we are seeing from others such as large mutual fund complexes we believe they are experiencing redemptions. They are selling some of their higher quality names. This is reminiscent of other times when there were large redemptions and the funds tried to sell their most liquid, high quality names in an effort to raise cash and not take the hit as all credit spreads widened. We have seen large blocks of high-quality names such as Delaware GO and Maryland GO out for the bid.
  • Although the fund flows we track from Lipper don’t publish daily flows, one other reporting service (EPFR) is showing about $1.3bn in outflows the past 2 days.

As always, we will do our best to provide liquidity as needed. However, we would recommend holding off on selling municipals if liquidity is not needed at the moment. We also believe this is an opportunity to buy municipals, given the significant cheapening.

Disclosures

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