Insights   |   December 12, 2019

Recap 2019, Outlook 2020

Over the last year, sentiment remained fragile as unnerved investors digested a flurry of trade-related and geopolitical headlines that sparked fears of a pronounced global slowdown. The good news, however, is that we are likely past the point of peak pessimism on the state of the global economy, with some nascent signs that the worst may finally be behind us.

Caroline Grandoit
Global Head of Total Portfolio Solutions
Robert Petty
Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Fiera Asia
Caroline Grandoit
Global Head of Total Portfolio Solutions
Robert Petty
Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Fiera Asia
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Dominic Bokor-Ingram
Senior Portfolio Manager
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions

While the consumer has been a pivotal source of strength, improving manufacturing results out of the US, Europe, and China have validated our expectations for a reacceleration in global growth after several months of trade-induced angst that’s battered the factory space.

Encouragingly, the US-Sino trade spat has subsided amid some conciliatory signals from both sides and a willingness to come to some sort of truce that would remove a key overhang that’s plagued sentiment and growth. Tensions have receded as President’s Trump and Xi get closer to signing a “phase one” deal, with the potential for a ceasefire or even a rollback in existing tariffs. And across the Atlantic, the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit scenario has declined substantially, limiting the potential for a severe economic fallout in Europe.

Finally, policymakers across the world have stepped-up and pledged their unrelenting support and are no where near removing the proverbial punchbowl. The plethora of grow then enhancing efforts from both central banks and governments should ultimately prove successful in revitalizing the global economy and counter the turbulent political landscape at hand as we head into 2020.

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