Market Commentaries   |   December 5, 2025

Global Asset Allocation Team Market Update – December 2025

Financial markets were whipsawed in November. Initially, momentum in global stock markets stalled out as investors weighed concerns over lofty technology valuations, sparce economic data amid the prolonged government shutdown, and an unclear jobs picture in the United States. On the former, solid earnings results from key players including Nvidia and Palantir failed to keep the market afloat as stocks struggled under the weight of valuation concerns. However, risk assets rebounded towards month-end, with growing conviction for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve boosting both risk appetite and stock markets alike.

Global equity markets were virtually unchanged in November, with the MSCI All Country World declining -0.1%. Regionally, results were mixed. The S&P 500 (+0.1%) lost some momentum as a sudden bout of risk aversion shook markets and lead to a sharp plunge in some of this year’s highest-flying stocks. Indeed, the heavyweight technology sector (-4.4%) posted its worst month since March amid mounting concerns over lofty AI-related valuations. However, the S&P/TSX (+3.7%) saw some notable outperformance thanks to solid results the gold sector (+14.5%) that represents ~13% of the index. Elsewhere, the MSCI EAFE (+0.5%) capped a fifth monthly gain, while the MSCI gauge of emerging market stocks (-2.5%) stumbled in its first monthly decline this year.

Fixed income markets generated positive results following dovish-leaning comments from some influential Federal Reserve officials. Notably, New York Fed President Williams signaled that he sees room for a rate reduction “in the near term” amid labor market softness – while Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly added to the “cut” camp. That saw investors raise the odds of a December rate cut to north of 80%. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index rose 0.6%, while the FTSE Canada Bond Universe inched up by 0.3%.

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