Insights   |   January 31, 2020

Direct Client Investments 4th Quarter Market Commentary

2019 was a banner year for equities and fixed income as both asset classes posted impressive returns, despite a flurry of geopolitical headlines and several uncertainties that sparked fears of a global slowdown. However, the continued strength of the consumer, a dovish pivot by the Fed, and positive momentum around a trade deal with China helped boost investor sentiment as the growth outlook improved.

Caroline Grandoit
Global Head of Total Portfolio Solutions
Robert Petty
Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Fiera Asia
Caroline Grandoit
Global Head of Total Portfolio Solutions
Robert Petty
Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Fiera Asia
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Dominic Bokor-Ingram
Senior Portfolio Manager
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Dominic Bokor-Ingram
Senior Portfolio Manager
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Dominic Bokor-Ingram
Senior Portfolio Manager
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Kenneth M. Potts
Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager
Dexter J. Torres
Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Head of Trading
Brian P. Meaney
Senior Vice President, Taxable Bond Strategist
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Brian P. Meaney
Senior Vice President, Taxable Bond Strategist
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Brian P. Meaney
Senior Vice President, Taxable Bond Strategist
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions
Judy Wesalo Temel
Senior Vice President, Director of Credit Research
Reese K. Trucks
Vice President, Credit Research
Josefa Palma
Investment Counselor, Private Wealth
Carolyn N. Dolan
Executive Vice President, Head of US Private Wealth
Candice Bangsund
Vice President and Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets Solutions

Fourth Quarter 2019 Review

Domestic equity markets ended the year near all-time highs as global monetary policy remained accommodative and several uncertainties that had been weighing on sentiment received some clarity. Most noteworthy is that the US and China agreed on the details of a Phase One trade deal that averted new tariffs and modestly rolled back some existing duties. The strength of the US consumer continues to drive economic growth thanks to consistent job creation, rising incomes, and low interest rates that have bolstered spending.

Non-farm payrolls averaged 162k in 2019 as the job market continues to tighten, albeit at a slower pace. Wage growth has also picked up with the most recent reading near 3% (as of 12/31/19) and personal income growth approaching 5% year-over-year (as of 11/30/19), paving the way for the consumer to continue to continue to be the main driver of overall growth. We expect to see an uptick in business spending as the uncertainty overhang surrounding the trade war has decreased.

With an improvement in the growth outlook, longer yields increased throughout the 4th quarter, and the yield curve also steepened. The 10-year Treasury, which started the year at a yield of 2.69% reached a low of 1.46% in August before ending the year at 1.92%. Even with the pick-up in yields throughout the quarter, yields still ended the year approximately 75 basis points lower, as easier monetary policy and a sustained lack of inflation have kept yields low.

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Disclosures

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The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East.

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The Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixedrate taxable bond market with less than 10 years to maturity. The securitized sector is wholly included. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS, ABS and CMBS.

Bloomberg Barclays Muni 1-10Yr Blend (1-12) Total Return Index Value.

The ICE BofA US Cash Pay High Yield Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt, currently in a coupon paying period, that is publicly issued in the US domestic market.

The ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities Index tracks the performance of fixed rate US dollar denominated preferred securities issued in the US domestic market.

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