Shifting Party Power in the States: Credit Implications
The November 2018 midterm elections ushered in notable changes at both the governor and state legislature levels. These shifts have important, lasting implications for both state policy and state credit.
2019 Asia Market Outlook
What should investors expect from Asian markets in 2019? Our investment professionals have digested recent market volatility and evaluated the fundamentals to identify the themes to watch.
Global Investment Outlook 2019
Despite the latest escalation in trade tensions and political vulnerabilities in Europe, the narrative of a synchronized global expansion remains firmly intact, while the accommodative monetary and fiscal impulse should allow the expansion to continue uninterrupted in the coming year. After a tumultuous 2018, 2019 looks set to be another interesting year.
Risk On
Fed Chairman Powell gave the green light for risk on - and risk markets have wasted no time responding. Not only did he say rates are near the neutral rate, he explained stocks are reasonably valued, and the banking system is strong – we believe this is about as strong a buy signal as a Fed chair will ever give.
2-3 Year Treasuries May Be Signaling a Pause In Rate Hikes after December
The 2 charts below show important developments in 2 & 3 year Treasury yields (See charts 1 & 2 below):
- While longer-term uptrends in yield remain in place…
- Shorter-term uptrends in yields are breaking
Inflation Expectations: Watch Out Below!!!!! Note to Fed - Don't Keep Tightening
Fed policy may be too restrictive. Yesterday was notable because the belly of the Treasury curve is outperforming the wings.
Markets to Fed: Slow Down - Central Bank Policy Risk Rising
After a brief stock market surge following the midterm elections (gridlock in Washington is viewed as positive for markets), optimism was vanquished by pessimism. The dark clouds of a sterile FOMC statement and the grim news that oil has entered a bear market contributed to this shift in outlook. The intraday chart below shows the S&P 500 for the week – note the gap up after the election.
The TIPS/Dollar Tug of War and What It Means for Stocks
The US dollar, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) is at the top of a trading range that has been in place since the start of this year (chart 1). In fact, it is threatening to break out of the top of this range. A stronger US dollar has been linked to recent equity market volatility in part because of the way that it destabilizes emerging market economies.
Time Matters: Yield Curve Slope, and Stocks
Investors spend a lot of timing looking at the slope of the Treasury curve for hints about the future direction of the economy and risk assets like stocks. Standard thinking is that a flatter curve likely leads to a slowdown as a small spread between short and long rates impacts credit creation and lending to the private sector; conversely a positive or steepening yield curve can signal better times ahead.