In this paper, we have run some simple scenario analysis to illustrate potential downside for the strategy from here and what that means in terms of future TSR’s (Total Share Holder Returns). We of course have to make some assumptions in this, the key one being that we can maintain our ability to deliver a similar level of fundamental returns (absolute and relative) on an ex-ante basis. We have also included some thoughts around how we arrive at this confidence. Much of the narrative about “looking for structural growth” you may be familiar with as that is consistent with our philosophy, but the aim was to put some high-level numbers together to help further demonstrate why we are comfortable delivering on our fundamental targets over the next 5 years and beyond.
Is our growth sustainable going forward?
There are two variables to this question. The impact from fundamentals (earnings growth and distributions) and impact from valuations. Let’s assess both the market and the portfolio.
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